Saturday, August 15, 2009

By the numbers in 2010?

Markos (of Daily Kos) points at Nate Silver's regression analysis and new polling numbers to say that repeal of Prop H8 in 2010 is doable.
If you voted in the 2008 election last November did you vote for or against Proposition 8 which banned same-sex marriage?

For 51
Against 45
Did not vote 4

As you may know the 2010 ballot may feature an initiative which if passed would allow for same-sex marriage in California. If you were voting today on such an initiative would you vote for or against allowing same-sex marriage in California?

For 47
Against 48
Not sure 5

In the first question, "For" is against gay marriage, in the second, it's for it. In short, support for gay marriage is up 2 points, while opposition is down from 51 percent to 48 percent. That's a five point drop. For a ballot initiative that passed by a scant 4.48 points, that turns this effort into a toss-up.

Do we or don't we?

1 comment:

Göran Koch-Swahne said...

Anyone who sets up questionaires should know not to be this confused nor confusing!