Nate Silver, über-pollster, comments,
At the same time, it is probably also no longer safe to say that opposition to same-sex marriage is the majority position, and it is becoming dubious to call it the plurality position. Opinion on the issue, instead, is close to evenly divided, with results varying somewhat depending on things like question wording. It may be noteworthy that CNN tends to find slightly higher levels of support for gay marriage with a question that is explicitly framed around constitutional rights, echoing arguments that are very much at the center of the ongoing legal case against California Proposition 8
And in a separate piece, Silver provides a graph of the long term trends. The rate of acceptance is increasing faster. That is, over the last year or so, people have moved to our side at about 4%, whereas in previous years it was a steady 1% or so.
It's not over, but is the tide turning?
Data from 538.com
3 comments:
Cross-posted at "An Inch at a Time":
Very interesting . . . and not entirely positive (from a broad human rights perspective).
I notice that the question was asked in the context of being asked about birthright citizenship (49% would amend the Constitution to stop it. Basically, IMO, "Fear of a Brown USA"). And, even more disturbingly, was the overwhelming % opposing the proposed Islamic community center, inc mosque, in Lower Manhattan near Ground Zero.
Are human rights a zero-sum game? You can only grant them to same-sex couples, by taking them away from someone else? (asked JCF, disgusted).
[The interesting factoid: the difference towards SSM, based on slightly different wording. The overall 52% approving, came from phrasing the question "SHOULD gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married", whereas the phrasing "DO they have a right..." broke, overall, 51-49 against. While that difference might be seen as fairly slight---certainly w/in the margin-of-error---even more interesting was a factoid in the sub-breakdown. In the "DO they" form, 52% of women were positive, while 45% of men were: a 7% "gender gap." But in the "SHOULD they" form, it broke women 67% in favor and men only 37% in favor: a PHENOMENAL 30% gender gap!!! What in the world??? (I'd really like to know more about this discrepancy: something "Does Not Compute" here)]
JCF, I think the main concern with SSM is men being icked out by men who are gay.
I also think you are right about the need to have someone to hate--and now it's Muslims.
Maybe . . . but just a couple of months ago, I saw a story (in the NYT, I think) talking about the stunning rise of MALE approval of SSM! (greater than women's, in one poll. The theory was, w/ the exposure of so many closet-case hypocrites, anti-gay was the new gay!)
I still think it's going to take awhile for these polls to show something consistent.
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