Reading the Tea Leaves on Prop 8

Now that the Supremes have startled everyone by deciding to hear the Prop8 case, everyone is trying to parse the possible outcomes.  From the HuffPo:

Yet don't count on a game-changing decision too quickly. It's more likely that Olson and Boies' blockbuster will end with a whimper..... 

There might even be some surprising reluctance from the left wing of the Court. ....
Gay marriage is similar [to abortion]. There's a risk of backlash from a bold opinion and, if the Court stays its hand, the political process is clearly trending towards allowing gay and lesbian Americans to marry. ......

If the Supreme Court takes either tack -- turning back the challenge for procedural reasons or limiting its ruling to California -- it will still be a victory for gay rights, even if it is less than Olson and Boies were originally hoping for. If the justices say Proposition 8's backers weren't appropriate parties, the case would be returned to the lower courts to start over. California's attorney general and governor, however, are certain to refuse to defend the law, which would result in a default judgment in favor of Olson and Boies. Gay marriage would then be legal in California.