But there's one force, perhaps greater than any other, that shouldn't be underestimated: theMormon church's political surrender on gay marriage.
It's remarkable what has happened in the marriage fight since the Mormons decided to abandon it. Consider that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was the single biggest funder and organizer of the 2008 campaign to pass California's Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage in one of America's most liberal states. The church is estimated to have directed at least $20 million to that effort, along with significant organizing clout. Documents unearthed by activist Fred Karger showed that the Mormons had 77 people working full time at the church's Salt Lake City headquarters to get Prop. 8 passed...
...But after the Mormon involvement in Prop. 8 was fully exposed, the backlash was severe—and apparently unexpected. ..
...Last year in Maryland, the church even went so far as to squelch an effort by some Mormons to organize against a pro-marriage initiative on the state ballot. The loss of the church as an ally has been a huge blow to foes of gay marriage, especially given its ability to deploy a host of motivated volunteers....If the Mormons continue to stay home with their checkbooks closed, then we may just win this thing. In contrast with the march-in-lockstep Mormons, while the Catholic Bishops are against us, most Catholics are on our side. It's only a narrow fringe of conservative Catholics that are the opponents (and who make up NOM and the Knights of Columbus).